Back to home
Preseason Model
2026 Forecast Board
All 136 FBS teams • Projected net EPA/play from SP+ (55%), returning production (20%), transfer portal (15%) & recruiting (10%), z-score weighted.
| Rank | Team | Tier | Proj EPA | Δ '25 | Return % | Portal Net | Recruit Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Notre DameProj: 10-2 FBS Independents | A | +0.183 | 4 | 37% | +7.6 | 12 |
| 2 |  Texas TechProj: 11-1 Big 12 | A | +0.181 | 1 | 59% | +3.1 | 48 |
| 3 |  Ohio StateProj: 9-3 Big Ten | A | +0.178 | 1 | 31% | +1.3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Texas A&MProj: 9-3 SEC | A | +0.154 | 5 | 75% | +2.7 | 9 |
| 5 |  IndianaProj: 10-2 Big Ten | A | +0.149 | 4 | 25% | +0.1 | 47 |
| 6 |  Georgia TechProj: 7-5 ACC | A | +0.148 | 29 | 81% | +9.1 | 21 |
| 7 |  GeorgiaProj: 9-3 SEC | A | +0.133 | 1 | 37% | -0.3 | 2 |
| 8 |  BYUProj: 8-4 Big 12 | A | +0.133 | 10 | 87% | +4.5 | 55 |
| 9 |  OklahomaProj: 8-4 SEC | A | +0.129 | 5 | 53% | +6.7 | 17 |
| 10 |  Penn StateProj: 8-4 Big Ten | A | +0.128 | 5 | 56% | -0.1 | 15 |
| 11 |  OregonProj: 10-2 Big Ten | A | +0.125 | 7 | 19% | -0.2 | 5 |
| 12 |  Ole MissProj: 8-4 SEC | A | +0.122 | 5 | 18% | +2.1 | 16 |
| 13 |  LSUProj: 7-5 SEC | A | +0.121 | 19 | 66% | +4.8 | 10 |
| 14 |  South FloridaProj: 8-4 American Athletic | A | +0.115 | 15 | 100% | +3.8 | 65 |
| 15 |  TexasProj: 8-4 SEC | A | +0.110 | 2 | 28% | +2.7 | 1 |
| 16 |  SMUProj: 9-3 ACC | A | +0.105 | 7 | 50% | +3.4 | 31 |
| 17 |  WashingtonProj: 8-4 Big Ten | A | +0.100 | 4 | 42% | +0.7 | 23 |
| 18 |  PittsburghProj: 8-4 ACC | A | +0.100 | 18 | 75% | +5.1 | 51 |
| 19 |  VanderbiltProj: 8-4 SEC | A | +0.099 | 8 | 86% | -2.5 | 76 |
| 20 |  North TexasProj: 8-4 American Athletic | A | +0.096 | 2 | 56% | +3.0 | 112 |
| 21 |  MiamiProj: 10-2 ACC | B | +0.094 | 12 | 13% | +0.8 | 13 |
| 22 |  UtahProj: 9-3 Big 12 | B | +0.090 | 14 | 14% | +2.5 | 40 |
| 23 |  USCProj: 8-4 Big Ten | B | +0.089 | 7 | 37% | 0.0 | 14 |
| 24 |  NC StateProj: 8-4 ACC | B | +0.082 | 31 | 95% | +1.8 | 34 |
| 25 |  James MadisonProj: 8-4 Sun Belt | B | +0.079 | 2 | 78% | +1.1 | 108 |
| 26 |  ClemsonProj: 7-5 ACC | B | +0.079 | 8 | 83% | -0.7 | 26 |
| 27 |  AlabamaProj: 7-5 SEC | B | +0.075 | 7 | 43% | -1.6 | 3 |
| 28 |  LouisvilleProj: 8-4 ACC | B | +0.075 | 3 | 46% | +1.5 | 68 |
| 29 |  AuburnProj: 7-5 SEC | B | +0.071 | 0 | 22% | +3.4 | 8 |
| 30 |  East CarolinaProj: 8-4 American Athletic | B | +0.068 | 8 | 51% | +5.1 | 77 |
| 31 |  IowaProj: 8-4 Big Ten | B | +0.066 | 19 | 49% | -2.1 | 38 |
| 32 |  Iowa StateProj: 6-6 Big 12 | B | +0.066 | 1 | 58% | +0.6 | 54 |
| 33 |  UTSAProj: 8-4 American Athletic | B | +0.066 | 29 | 96% | +2.7 | 107 |
| 34 |  TCUProj: 7-5 Big 12 | B | +0.065 | 3 | 61% | -1.2 | 24 |
| 35 |  San Diego StateProj: 8-3 Pac-12 | B | +0.064 | 8 | 80% | +5.5 | 78 |
| 36 |  CincinnatiProj: 6-6 Big 12 | B | +0.063 | 20 | 79% | +3.1 | 61 |
| 37 |  IllinoisProj: 7-5 Big Ten | B | +0.061 | 13 | 53% | -1.4 | 45 |
| 38 |  MissouriProj: 7-5 SEC | B | +0.056 | 17 | 20% | +0.8 | 20 |
| 39 |  Arizona StateProj: 6-6 Big 12 | B | +0.052 | 21 | 70% | +0.5 | 44 |
| 40 |  TennesseeProj: 7-5 SEC | B | +0.049 | 21 | 22% | -2.3 | 11 |
| 41 |  MichiganProj: 7-5 Big Ten | B | +0.048 | 16 | 40% | -0.9 | 6 |
| 42 |  BaylorProj: 6-6 Big 12 | B | +0.047 | 29 | 83% | -0.5 | 36 |
| 43 |  MemphisProj: 7-5 American Athletic | B | +0.044 | 4 | 12% | +6.1 | 60 |
| 44 |  Kansas StateProj: 7-5 Big 12 | B | +0.043 | 2 | 69% | -3.1 | 35 |
| 45 |  Boise StateProj: 6-5 Pac-12 | B | +0.042 | 19 | 58% | +0.2 | 62 |
| 46 |  ArizonaProj: 7-5 Big 12 | B | +0.039 | 18 | 56% | -2.4 | 50 |
| 47 |  NebraskaProj: 6-6 Big Ten | B | +0.037 | 1 | 59% | 0.0 | 22 |
| 48 |  Texas StateProj: 6-5 Pac-12 | C | +0.037 | 17 | 93% | -2.7 | 101 |
| 49 |  VirginiaProj: 9-3 ACC | C | +0.034 | 18 | 28% | +1.1 | 58 |
| 50 |  South CarolinaProj: 7-5 SEC | C | +0.031 | 1 | 63% | -2.9 | 18 |
| 51 |  NorthwesternProj: 7-5 Big Ten | C | +0.029 | 0 | 68% | +2.9 | 66 |
| 52 |  ArkansasProj: 4-8 SEC | C | +0.027 | 1 | 36% | +0.4 | 32 |
| 53 |  NavyProj: 5-7 American Athletic | C | +0.026 | 7 | 97% | 0.0 | 132 |
| 54 |  UConnProj: 7-5 FBS Independents | C | +0.025 | 1 | 68% | +1.1 | 114 |
| 55 |  HoustonProj: 8-4 Big 12 | C | +0.024 | 15 | 105% | +0.5 | 52 |
| 56 |  Hawai'iProj: 8-4 Mountain West | C | +0.024 | 12 | 46% | +6.1 | 124 |
| 57 |  TulaneProj: 7-5 American Athletic | C | +0.023 | 12 | 15% | +4.2 | 74 |
| 58 |  ToledoProj: 9-3 Mid-American | C | +0.023 | 10 | 69% | -1.6 | 73 |
| 59 |  KansasProj: 6-6 Big 12 | C | +0.023 | 1 | 41% | +2.0 | 72 |
| 60 |  RutgersProj: 6-6 Big Ten | C | +0.020 | 12 | 67% | +0.7 | 33 |
| 61 |  Western MichiganProj: 8-4 Mid-American | C | +0.020 | 17 | 100% | +1.2 | 104 |
| 62 |  Washington StateProj: 6-5 Pac-12 | C | +0.018 | 1 | 25% | +3.2 | 71 |
| 63 |  Old DominionProj: 8-4 Sun Belt | C | +0.016 | 14 | 74% | -2.5 | 102 |
| 64 |  DukeProj: 7-5 ACC | C | +0.015 | 20 | 18% | +1.6 | 30 |
| 65 |  Wake ForestProj: 5-7 ACC | C | +0.013 | 13 | 26% | +2.1 | 63 |
| 66 |  FloridaProj: 5-7 SEC | C | +0.011 | 3 | 55% | -2.8 | 7 |
| 67 |  MinnesotaProj: 6-6 Big Ten | C | +0.009 | 3 | 44% | +1.4 | 49 |
| 68 |  Mississippi StateProj: 5-7 SEC | C | +0.006 | 10 | 42% | -0.8 | 28 |
| 69 |  Western KentuckyProj: 8-4 Conference USA | C | +0.006 | 0 | 33% | +3.3 | 96 |
| 70 |  New MexicoProj: 7-5 Mountain West | C | -0.007 | 3 | 13% | +9.5 | 194 |
| 71 |  MarshallProj: 8-4 Sun Belt | C | -0.009 | 15 | 100% | -0.2 | 120 |
| 72 |  Jacksonville StateProj: 7-5 Conference USA | C | -0.009 | 20 | 84% | -0.8 | 110 |
| 73 |  Florida StateProj: 7-5 ACC | C | -0.014 | 32 | 13% | -2.7 | 19 |
| 74 |  UNLVProj: 8-4 Mountain West | C | -0.015 | 17 | 15% | +0.9 | 95 |
| 75 |  Utah StateProj: 5-6 Pac-12 | C | -0.015 | 4 | 63% | -0.7 | 87 |
| 76 |  Georgia SouthernProj: 5-7 Sun Belt | C | -0.015 | 27 | 92% | +0.6 | 80 |
| 77 |  MarylandProj: 6-6 Big Ten | C | -0.017 | 2 | 13% | +1.7 | 25 |
| 78 |  KentuckyProj: 4-8 SEC | C | -0.022 | 12 | 27% | -0.5 | 29 |
| 79 |  TempleProj: 6-6 American Athletic | C | -0.024 | 9 | 100% | +2.6 | 123 |
| 80 |  Miami (OH)Proj: 7-5 Mid-American | C | -0.026 | 2 | 48% | +1.4 | 83 |
| 81 |  LibertyProj: 7-5 Conference USA | C | -0.029 | 21 | 100% | 0.0 | 86 |
| 82 |  UCFProj: 6-6 Big 12 | D | -0.030 | 6 | 31% | +0.7 | 79 |
| 83 |  WisconsinProj: 6-6 Big Ten | D | -0.030 | 2 | 40% | +1.0 | 27 |
| 84 |  Louisiana TechProj: 7-5 Sun Belt | D | -0.036 | 7 | 54% | -0.2 | 111 |
| 85 |  Boston CollegeProj: 4-8 ACC | D | -0.036 | 12 | 62% | +0.2 | 59 |
| 86 |  NevadaProj: 5-7 Mountain West | D | -0.036 | 30 | 66% | +4.4 | 88 |
| 87 |  TulsaProj: 6-6 American Athletic | D | -0.037 | 17 | 99% | +1.4 | 109 |
| 88 |  Coastal CarolinaProj: 5-7 Sun Belt | D | -0.037 | 33 | 97% | +2.6 | 91 |
| 89 |  OhioProj: 7-5 Mid-American | D | -0.038 | 5 | 65% | -1.8 | 121 |
| 90 |  WyomingProj: 6-6 Mountain West | D | -0.038 | 20 | 77% | +5.1 | 89 |
| 91 |  Fresno StateProj: 6-5 Pac-12 | D | -0.041 | 25 | 17% | -0.6 | 103 |
| 92 |  Michigan StateProj: 4-8 Big Ten | D | -0.041 | 10 | 69% | -3.1 | 57 |
| 93 |  LouisianaProj: 6-6 Sun Belt | D | -0.043 | 12 | 57% | -0.7 | 81 |
| 94 |  San José StateProj: 4-9 Mountain West | D | -0.043 | 24 | 59% | +3.5 | 117 |
| 95 |  North CarolinaProj: 3-9 ACC | D | -0.044 | 4 | 16% | +3.1 | 41 |
| 96 |  Arkansas StateProj: 6-6 Sun Belt | D | -0.046 | 4 | 59% | -0.4 | 75 |
| 97 |  West VirginiaProj: 5-7 Big 12 | D | -0.047 | 4 | 26% | +1.1 | 43 |
| 98 |  ArmyProj: 6-6 American Athletic | D | -0.048 | 24 | 25% | 0.0 | 130 |
| 99 |  CaliforniaProj: 6-6 ACC | D | -0.050 | 19 | 23% | -0.1 | 69 |
| 100 |  Florida AtlanticProj: 6-6 American Athletic | D | -0.052 | 2 | 21% | +4.8 | 85 |
| 101 |  SyracuseProj: 4-8 ACC | D | -0.058 | 14 | 14% | +5.1 | 42 |
| 102 |  Air ForceProj: 6-6 Mountain West | D | -0.060 | 22 | 63% | 0.0 | 129 |
| 103 |  Virginia TechProj: 4-8 ACC | D | -0.060 | 2 | 50% | +0.8 | 39 |
| 104 |  South AlabamaProj: 6-6 Sun Belt | D | -0.064 | 10 | 25% | +5.4 | 118 |
| 105 |  PurdueProj: 4-8 Big Ten | D | -0.065 | 15 | 54% | -0.4 | 99 |
| 106 |  UCLAProj: 5-7 Big Ten | D | -0.068 | 8 | 22% | +1.0 | 46 |
| 107 |  Florida InternationalProj: 6-6 Conference USA | D | -0.072 | 0 | 42% | +1.0 | 90 |
| 108 |  Southern MissProj: 6-6 Sun Belt | D | -0.073 | 14 | 52% | +0.9 | 105 |
| 109 |  Colorado StateProj: 3-8 Pac-12 | F | -0.073 | 15 | 50% | +3.8 | 106 |
| 110 |  ColoradoProj: 4-8 Big 12 | F | -0.075 | 14 | 7% | +0.7 | 37 |
| 111 |  Oklahoma StateProj: 3-9 Big 12 | F | -0.075 | 10 | 45% | +1.4 | 53 |
| 112 |  TroyProj: 7-5 Sun Belt | F | -0.076 | 25 | 33% | -4.1 | 82 |
| 113 |  BuffaloProj: 6-6 Mid-American | F | -0.084 | 18 | 66% | -3.8 | 92 |
| 114 |  StanfordProj: 3-9 ACC | F | -0.084 | 2 | 19% | +2.3 | 56 |
| 115 |  Oregon StateProj: 4-7 Pac-12 | F | -0.086 | 11 | 52% | +0.9 | 64 |
| 116 |  Middle TennesseeProj: 5-7 Conference USA | F | -0.087 | 11 | 99% | -3.3 | 98 |
| 117 |  UABProj: 4-8 American Athletic | F | -0.095 | 8 | 73% | -2.3 | 125 |
| 118 |  RiceProj: 4-8 American Athletic | F | -0.097 | 2 | 75% | -1.3 | 100 |
| 119 |  Bowling GreenProj: 5-7 Mid-American | F | -0.098 | 6 | 8% | +2.2 | 94 |
| 120 |  Kennesaw StateProj: 6-6 Conference USA | F | -0.101 | 31 | 46% | -0.5 | 154 |
| 121 |  Georgia StateProj: 4-8 Sun Belt | F | -0.101 | 12 | 69% | +2.5 | 67 |
| 122 |  New Mexico StateProj: 5-7 Conference USA | F | -0.102 | 1 | 56% | +2.9 | 126 |
| 123 |  App StateProj: 6-6 Sun Belt | F | -0.118 | 12 | 14% | -1.3 | 116 |
| 124 |  UTEPProj: 4-8 Mountain West | F | -0.118 | 5 | 100% | -3.7 | 70 |
| 125 |  Northern IllinoisProj: 5-7 Mountain West | F | -0.123 | 3 | 53% | -4.0 | 84 |
| 126 |  Missouri StateProj: 4-8 Conference USA | F | -0.131 | 18 | 0% | -0.2 | 136 |
| 127 |  Eastern MichiganProj: 5-7 Mid-American | F | -0.133 | 8 | 25% | -2.8 | 97 |
| 128 |  UL MonroeProj: 4-8 Sun Belt | F | -0.134 | 3 | 78% | -0.5 | 115 |
| 129 |  Central MichiganProj: 5-7 Mid-American | F | -0.135 | 29 | 10% | -5.3 | 113 |
| 130 |  DelawareProj: 5-7 Conference USA | F | -0.140 | 21 | 0% | -1.3 | 137 |
| 131 |  AkronProj: 5-7 Mid-American | F | -0.144 | 14 | 37% | -4.1 | 128 |
| 132 |  Ball StateProj: 3-9 Mid-American | F | -0.164 | 0 | 8% | +1.4 | 119 |
| 133 |  Sam HoustonProj: 3-9 Conference USA | F | -0.166 | 2 | 90% | -1.6 | 122 |
| 134 |  CharlotteProj: 3-9 American Athletic | F | -0.175 | 0 | 24% | +4.0 | 144 |
| 135 |  Kent StateProj: 4-8 Mid-American | F | -0.176 | 5 | 11% | -4.1 | 93 |
| 136 |  MassachusettsProj: 2-10 Mid-American | F | -0.189 | 0 | 76% | +3.0 | 145 |