Play-by-play EPA
Live Room
Live EPA tracking and a deserved score built from every play — turnover plays neutralized — so when a game ends you can grade the bet on how it was actually played, not just the final.
This slate
Week luck leaderboard
South Alabama @ Arkansas State Red
Final 56–49·Deserved margin +8·Luck -15.0
+15.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: South Alabama·Unlucky: Arkansas State Red·Scoreboard ≠ deserved winner·Left-out gap +13.4
South Florida @ UTSA
Final 24–31·Deserved margin -1·Luck +8.0
+8.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: UTSA·Unlucky: South Florida·Scoreboard ≠ deserved winner·Left-out gap -3.0
Iowa @ Washington
Final 41–24·Deserved margin -10·Luck -7.0
+7.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: Iowa·Unlucky: Washington
Florida State @ Louisville
Final 20–44·Deserved margin +17·Luck +7.0
+7.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: Louisville·Unlucky: Florida State·Left-out gap -6.2
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State
Final 27–26·Deserved margin +1·Luck -2.0
+2.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: Jacksonville State·Unlucky: Kennesaw State·Scoreboard ≠ deserved winner
Iowa State @ BYU
Final 10–24·Deserved margin +14·Luck 0.0
0.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: BYU·Unlucky: Iowa State·Left-out gap +8.4
Wyoming @ San José State
Final 16–13·Deserved margin -3·Luck 0.0
0.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: San José State·Unlucky: Wyoming
Washington State @ Utah State
Final 16–17·Deserved margin +1·Luck 0.0
0.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: Utah State·Unlucky: Washington State·Left-out gap +7.4
Missouri State @ Western Kentucky
Final 13–34·Deserved margin +21·Luck 0.0
0.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: Western Kentucky·Unlucky: Missouri State
Sam Houston @ Liberty
Final 3–35·Deserved margin +32·Luck 0.0
0.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: Liberty·Unlucky: Sam Houston·Left-out gap -8.7
New Mexico State @ Florida International
Final 3–22·Deserved margin +19·Luck 0.0
0.0
|Δ margin|
Flattered: Florida International·Unlucky: New Mexico State·Left-out gap -9.3
Luck = actual margin − deserved margin (home view). Positive luck flattered the home side on the scoreboard. Drive left-out = earned − actual when stalls left points on the field.
Final (11)
2026 rollup
Season luck
| Team | G | W-L | Luck | Avg | Left-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alabama Crimson | 2 | 2-0 | +49.0 | +24.5 | -41.3 |
 Indiana | 3 | 3-0 | +47.0 | +15.7 | -5.7 |
 Western Kentucky | 3 | 2-1 | +42.0 | +14.0 | -16.5 |
 Miami | 3 | 3-0 | +40.0 | +13.3 | -17.4 |
 Wisconsin | 2 | 2-0 | +33.0 | +16.5 | -21.6 |
 Louisiana Ragin' | 2 | 2-0 | +32.0 | +16.0 | -18.4 |
 Jacksonville State | 4 | 3-1 | +31.0 | +7.8 | -0.7 |
 Cincinnati | 2 | 2-0 | +31.0 | +15.5 | -16.9 |
 Virginia | 4 | 3-1 | +30.0 | +7.5 | -3.7 |
 South Carolina | 3 | 1-2 | +28.0 | +9.3 | -12.5 |
 Minnesota Golden | 3 | 2-1 | +26.0 | +8.7 | +6.5 |
 Oregon | 3 | 2-1 | +25.0 | +8.3 | +3.0 |
 Texas State | 2 | 2-0 | +24.0 | +12.0 | -10.2 |
 Kansas State | 2 | 1-1 | +23.0 | +11.5 | -16.3 |
 Northwestern | 2 | 1-1 | +23.0 | +11.5 | -14.7 |
Scoreboard luck = Σ(actual − deserved) per team. Left-out = Σ(earned − actual) from stalled drives. Opponent-adjusted season luck is not Massey yet — this is the Live TO-recredit rollup only.