2026 · 10,000 Bracket Simulations

College Football Playoff Simulator

Most Likely 12-Team Bracket

Seeds 1–4 bye · first round at higher seed

First Round

Notre Dame

Texas

#8 home · 62.1% win → faces #1

Texas TechCHAMP

San Diego State

#5 home · 93.8% win → faces #4

Texas A&M

Ole Miss

#6 home · 70.7% win → faces #3

MiamiCHAMP

Oklahoma

#7 home · 65.1% win → faces #2

Quarterfinals (byes)

Ohio StateCHAMP

vs first-round winner

GeorgiaCHAMP

vs first-round winner

Oregon

vs first-round winner

Indiana

vs first-round winner

Semifinals

1/8-9 winner vs 4/5-12 winner

2/7-10 winner vs 3/6-11 winner

National Championship

Semifinal winners · neutral site

Round-by-Round Probabilities

Click a cell to add it as a parlay leg · fair odds shown under each %

Team	Make CFP	Make QF	Make Semi	Make Final	Win Natty	Avg Seed
GeorgiaSEC						4.5
Ohio StateBig Ten						5.1
Texas TechBig 12						7.1
IndianaBig Ten						5.4
MiamiACC						7.3
BYUBig 12						6.6
Texas A&MSEC						6.7
OregonBig Ten						6
TexasSEC						5.8
OklahomaSEC						6.3
UtahBig 12						6.7
VanderbiltSEC						6.3
WashingtonBig Ten						5.8
SMUACC						8.8
Ole MissSEC						6.3
San Diego StatePac-12						7.4
TennesseeSEC						6.4
USCBig Ten						6.5
Notre DameFBS Independents						6.9
AlabamaSEC						6
LouisvilleACC						8.8
MissouriSEC						6.2
ArizonaBig 12						7.1
Boise StatePac-12						7.5
IowaBig Ten						6.4
Washington StatePac-12						7.7
UTSAAmerican Athletic						7.7
Texas StatePac-12						7.7
Georgia TechACC						8.8
Florida StateACC						8.3
MichiganBig Ten						6.5
NavyAmerican Athletic						7.8
ClemsonACC						8.9
ArmyAmerican Athletic						7.6
NC StateACC						9
East CarolinaAmerican Athletic						7.7
South CarolinaSEC						6.6
IllinoisBig Ten						6.9
LSUSEC						6.8
North TexasAmerican Athletic						8.2
TCUBig 12						7.1
VirginiaACC						9.5
HoustonBig 12						8.8
AuburnSEC						6.7
Utah StatePac-12						7.9
James MadisonSun Belt						7.8
NorthwesternBig Ten						6.8
Western MichiganMid-American						7.8
Old DominionSun Belt						8.1
South FloridaAmerican Athletic						7.8
Penn StateBig Ten						6.9
FloridaSEC						6.1
Western KentuckyConference USA						7.8
DukeACC						8.7
NebraskaBig Ten						6.3
Mississippi StateSEC						6.2
Louisiana TechSun Belt						7.8
Kansas StateBig 12						7.3
MemphisAmerican Athletic						7.5
Fresno StatePac-12						8.2

Parlay Builder

Click probabilities in the table to build a parlay (up to 6 legs). Take these to DraftKings or FanDuel and compare their price against the model's fair odds.