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Season Model
2026 Season Projections — Every Team, Every Game
Win/loss records, conference & playoff odds, and strength of schedule for all 138 FBS teams — from a 1,000-season Monte Carlo over every projected game.
Most Wins
Texas Tech
10.6 proj wins
Biggest Riser vs 2025
Liberty
+3.0 wins
Toughest SOS
Texas
#1 schedule
Highest Playoff Odds
Ohio State
93.2% playoff
| Team | Conf | Proj Wins | Win Total O/U | Range | Win% | Conf Champ | Playoff | SOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 10.6 median 11 | no line | 9–12 | 88% | 69.1% | 86.5% | #77 | |
 Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 9.9 median 10 | no line | 8–11 | 83% | — | 46.2% | #71 | |
 Miami | ACC | 9.8 median 10 | no line | 8–11 | 82% | 52.3% | 59.1% | #69 | |
 Indiana | Big Ten | 9.8 median 10 | no line | 7–12 | 81% | 32.4% | 82.2% | #20 | |
 Oregon | Big Ten | 9.5 median 10 | no line | 8–11 | 80% | 11.3% | 64.1% | #25 | |
 Georgia | SEC | 9.4 median 9 | no line | 8–11 | 78% | 27.6% | 75.7% | #10 | |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 9.3 median 9 | no line | 8–11 | 78% | 52.3% | 93.2% | #3 | |
 Utah | Big 12 | 8.9 median 9 | no line | 7–11 | 74% | 4.1% | 28.2% | #54 | |
 Texas A&M | SEC | 8.8 median 9 | no line | 7–11 | 74% | 40.1% | 70.4% | #27 | |
 Toledo | Mid-American | 8.7 median 9 | no line | 7–10 | 72% | 21.6% | 0.2% | #132 | |
 SMU | ACC | 8.7 median 9 | no line | 7–10 | 72% | 25.0% | 28.3% | #72 | |
 Virginia | ACC | 8.6 median 9 | no line | 6–11 | 71% | 1.0% | 2.2% | #73 | |
 BYU | Big 12 | 8.4 median 8 | no line | 7–10 | 70% | 21.8% | 60.3% | #43 | |
 South Florida | American Athletic | 8.3 median 8 | no line | 5–11 | 69% | 4.1% | 3.8% | #104 | |
 Sacramento State | Mid-American | 8.1 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 68% | 23.3% | — | #135 | |
 East Carolina | American Athletic | 8.0 median 8 | no line | 5–11 | 67% | 16.2% | 5.0% | #106 | |
 Washington | Big Ten | 8.0 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 66% | 1.7% | 35.0% | #19 | |
 Louisville | ACC | 8.0 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 67% | 12.1% | 21.3% | #55 | |
 James Madison | Sun Belt | 8.0 median 8 | no line | 5–11 | 66% | 4.9% | 0.3% | #110 | |
 Oklahoma | SEC | 7.9 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 66% | 6.8% | 42.0% | #6 | |
 Penn State | Big Ten | 7.8 median 8 | no line | 5–11 | 65% | 0.3% | 8.8% | #44 | |
 USC | Big Ten | 7.8 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 65% | 1.5% | 17.0% | #17 | |
 Ole Miss | SEC | 7.8 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 65% | 9.3% | 43.9% | #12 | |
 Iowa | Big Ten | 7.8 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 65% | 0.1% | 9.6% | #29 | |
 Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 7.8 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 65% | 44.8% | — | #99 | |
 NC State | ACC | 7.7 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 64% | 1.3% | 2.4% | #63 | |
 UNLV | Mountain West | 7.7 median 8 | no line | 5–11 | 64% | 10.3% | 1.2% | #95 | |
 North Texas | American Athletic | 7.7 median 8 | no line | 5–10 | 64% | 3.3% | 1.2% | #82 | |
| Texas | SEC | 7.7 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 64% | 6.8% | 47.3% | #1 | |
 Pittsburgh | ACC | 7.7 median 8 | no line | 6–10 | 64% | 0.7% | 1.4% | #70 | |
 Houston | Big 12 | 7.7 median 8 | no line | 6–9 | 64% | 0.7% | 2.6% | #67 | |
 UTSA | American Athletic | 7.6 median 8 | no line | 6–9 | 63% | 25.6% | 6.8% | #81 | |
 Vanderbilt | SEC | 7.6 median 8 | no line | 5–10 | 63% | 4.1% | 26.9% | #26 | |
 Illinois | Big Ten | 7.5 median 7 | no line | 6–9 | 62% | 0.2% | 5.4% | #31 | |
 Marshall | Sun Belt | 7.5 median 8 | no line | 6–9 | 63% | 7.7% | 0.2% | #130 | |
 San Diego State | Pac-12 | 7.5 median 8 | no line | 6–9 | 69% | 34.6% | 14.4% | #76 | |
 Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 7.5 median 8 | no line | 4–11 | 62% | 37.0% | 2.2% | #108 | |
 Hawai'i | Mountain West | 7.5 median 8 | no line | 5–10 | 63% | 27.8% | 1.2% | #109 | |
 Western Michigan | Mid-American | 7.5 median 8 | no line | 6–9 | 63% | 44.8% | 1.4% | #107 | |
 Tennessee | SEC | 7.5 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 62% | 1.8% | 17.7% | #21 | |
 Arizona | Big 12 | 7.4 median 7 | no line | 6–9 | 62% | 3.9% | 21.6% | #37 | |
 Clemson | ACC | 7.4 median 7 | no line | 6–9 | 62% | 2.3% | 5.2% | #56 | |
 Duke | ACC | 7.4 median 7 | no line | 6–9 | 61% | 0.1% | 0.6% | #52 | |
 North Dakota State | Mountain West | 7.3 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 61% | 21.1% | — | #122 | |
 Kansas State | Big 12 | 7.3 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 61% | 0.1% | 1.2% | #59 | |
 Memphis | American Athletic | 7.3 median 7 | no line | 4–10 | 61% | 6.2% | 4.1% | #96 | |
 Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 7.1 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 59% | 34.3% | 1.4% | #97 | |
 Georgia Tech | ACC | 7.1 median 7 | no line | 4–10 | 59% | 4.4% | 8.0% | #51 | |
 Jacksonville State | Conference USA | 7.0 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 58% | 6.9% | 0.1% | #136 | |
 LSU | SEC | 7.0 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 59% | 0.6% | 14.6% | #16 | |
 Miami (OH) | Mid-American | 7.0 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 58% | 19.6% | 0.1% | #126 | |
 New Mexico | Mountain West | 7.0 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 58% | 38.7% | 1.8% | #112 | |
 TCU | Big 12 | 6.9 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 57% | 0.1% | 2.1% | #45 | |
 Auburn | SEC | 6.9 median 7 | no line | 4–10 | 58% | 0.1% | 3.7% | #18 | |
 Missouri | SEC | 6.9 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 58% | 1.6% | 18.4% | #13 | |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 6.9 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 58% | 6.3% | — | #138 | |
 Michigan | Big Ten | 6.9 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 57% | 0.1% | 6.3% | #4 | |
 UConn | FBS Independents | 6.8 median 7 | no line | 4–10 | 57% | — | — | #117 | |
 Alabama | SEC | 6.8 median 7 | no line | 4–10 | 57% | 0.6% | 12.3% | #8 | |
 Tulane | American Athletic | 6.7 median 7 | no line | 4–10 | 56% | 1.9% | 1.3% | #78 | |
 Northwestern | Big Ten | 6.6 median 7 | no line | 5–8 | 55% | — | 0.9% | #23 | |
 South Carolina | SEC | 6.5 median 7 | no line | 5–9 | 54% | 0.6% | 10.9% | #22 | |
 Ohio | Mid-American | 6.5 median 7 | no line | 5–8 | 55% | 1.3% | — | #113 | |
 Troy | Sun Belt | 6.5 median 7 | no line | 5–8 | 54% | 9.8% | 0.3% | #111 | |
 Florida State | ACC | 6.5 median 7 | no line | 5–8 | 54% | 0.5% | 2.0% | #34 | |
 Cincinnati | Big 12 | 6.4 median 6 | no line | 3–9 | 53% | 0.1% | 0.7% | #42 | |
 Florida International | Conference USA | 6.4 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 54% | 11.8% | — | #137 | |
 Maryland | Big Ten | 6.3 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 53% | — | 0.3% | #39 | |
 Texas State | Pac-12 | 6.3 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 57% | 20.3% | 9.6% | #64 | |
 Kansas | Big 12 | 6.3 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 52% | — | 0.4% | #57 | |
 Nebraska | Big Ten | 6.3 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 52% | 0.1% | 3.1% | #14 | |
 Arizona State | Big 12 | 6.3 median 6 | no line | 3–9 | 52% | 0.1% | 0.4% | #38 | |
 Louisiana | Sun Belt | 6.3 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 53% | 1.3% | — | #133 | |
 Boise State | Pac-12 | 6.3 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 57% | 26.7% | 12.1% | #65 | |
 Iowa State | Big 12 | 6.2 median 6 | no line | 3–9 | 52% | — | — | #53 | |
 California | ACC | 6.1 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 51% | — | 0.2% | #61 | |
 UCF | Big 12 | 6.1 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 51% | — | 0.3% | #68 | |
 Tulsa | American Athletic | 6.0 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 50% | 0.3% | 0.2% | #123 | |
 Buffalo | Mid-American | 6.0 median 6 | no line | 3–9 | 50% | 1.0% | — | #134 | |
 Southern Miss | Sun Belt | 5.9 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 49% | 0.5% | — | #84 | |
 Florida Atlantic | American Athletic | 5.9 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 49% | 0.6% | 0.8% | #87 | |
 Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 5.9 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 49% | 1.7% | — | #121 | |
 Kennesaw State | Conference USA | 5.9 median 6 | no line | 3–9 | 49% | 8.8% | — | #131 | |
 Rutgers | Big Ten | 5.9 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 50% | — | 0.2% | #50 | |
 Minnesota | Big Ten | 5.9 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 49% | — | 2.1% | #32 | |
 Washington State | Pac-12 | 5.9 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 54% | 12.0% | 8.0% | #58 | |
 Baylor | Big 12 | 5.8 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 48% | — | 0.3% | #36 | |
 South Alabama | Sun Belt | 5.8 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 49% | 1.0% | — | #105 | |
 Wyoming | Mountain West | 5.7 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 47% | 0.8% | — | #125 | |
 Air Force | Mountain West | 5.6 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 47% | 21.4% | 1.5% | #128 | |
 Temple | American Athletic | 5.6 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 47% | 0.7% | 0.4% | #89 | |
 App State | Sun Belt | 5.6 median 6 | no line | 4–7 | 46% | 0.5% | — | #119 | |
 Fresno State | Pac-12 | 5.6 median 6 | no line | 4–7 | 51% | 3.5% | 2.7% | #74 | |
 Florida | SEC | 5.5 median 5 | no line | 4–7 | 46% | — | 0.8% | #5 | |
 Army | American Athletic | 5.5 median 6 | no line | 3–8 | 46% | 11.2% | 6.0% | #92 | |
 Eastern Michigan | Mid-American | 5.5 median 5 | no line | 4–7 | 45% | 4.5% | — | #127 | |
 Wake Forest | ACC | 5.5 median 5 | no line | 4–7 | 46% | 0.3% | 1.2% | #46 | |
 Wisconsin | Big Ten | 5.5 median 6 | no line | 4–8 | 46% | — | 0.1% | #49 | |
 Navy | American Athletic | 5.4 median 5 | no line | 2–8 | 45% | 30.0% | 9.9% | #91 | |
 Akron | Mid-American | 5.4 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 45% | 2.0% | — | #118 | |
 Delaware | Conference USA | 5.4 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 45% | 18.5% | — | #102 | |
 Central Michigan | Mid-American | 5.3 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 44% | 4.1% | — | #94 | |
 Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | 5.1 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 43% | 1.3% | — | #129 | |
 Mississippi State | SEC | 5.1 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 43% | 0.1% | 4.0% | #11 | |
 Nevada | Mountain West | 5.0 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 42% | 0.7% | — | #114 | |
 Utah State | Pac-12 | 5.0 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 45% | 2.8% | 1.8% | #60 | |
 Northern Illinois | Mountain West | 4.9 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 41% | 0.2% | — | #98 | |
 Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 4.8 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 40% | 0.7% | — | #120 | |
 Bowling Green | Mid-American | 4.7 median 5 | no line | 2–8 | 39% | 0.7% | — | #100 | |
 West Virginia | Big 12 | 4.6 median 5 | no line | 2–7 | 38% | — | 0.1% | #40 | |
 New Mexico State | Conference USA | 4.6 median 5 | no line | 2–8 | 38% | 1.1% | — | #116 | |
 Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 4.6 median 5 | no line | 2–8 | 38% | 0.6% | — | #83 | |
 UCLA | Big Ten | 4.6 median 5 | no line | 3–7 | 38% | — | — | #30 | |
 UAB | American Athletic | 4.5 median 4 | no line | 3–6 | 37% | — | — | #85 | |
 Oregon State | Pac-12 | 4.4 median 4 | no line | 2–6 | 40% | — | — | #62 | |
 Missouri State | Conference USA | 4.4 median 4 | no line | 3–6 | 37% | 0.7% | — | #88 | |
 San José State | Mountain West | 4.3 median 4 | no line | 1–7 | 33% | 0.2% | — | #93 | |
 UTEP | Mountain West | 4.3 median 4 | no line | 1–7 | 36% | 0.1% | — | #86 | |
 Arkansas | SEC | 4.2 median 4 | no line | 1–7 | 35% | — | 0.7% | #2 | |
 Kentucky | SEC | 4.2 median 4 | no line | 2–6 | 35% | — | 0.2% | #7 | |
 Purdue | Big Ten | 4.0 median 4 | no line | 2–6 | 33% | — | 0.2% | #15 | |
 Virginia Tech | ACC | 4.0 median 4 | no line | 2–6 | 33% | — | — | #48 | |
 Kent State | Mid-American | 4.0 median 4 | no line | 2–6 | 33% | 0.6% | — | #79 | |
 Georgia State | Sun Belt | 3.8 median 4 | no line | 2–6 | 32% | — | — | #115 | |
 Boston College | ACC | 3.8 median 4 | no line | 1–7 | 32% | — | — | #33 | |
 Colorado | Big 12 | 3.7 median 4 | no line | 2–6 | 31% | — | — | #35 | |
 Michigan State | Big Ten | 3.6 median 4 | no line | 1–6 | 30% | — | — | #9 | |
 Rice | American Athletic | 3.6 median 4 | no line | 2–6 | 30% | — | — | #75 | |
 Syracuse | ACC | 3.6 median 4 | no line | 1–7 | 30% | — | — | #41 | |
 UL Monroe | Sun Belt | 3.6 median 4 | no line | 2–6 | 30% | — | — | #103 | |
 North Carolina | ACC | 3.5 median 3 | no line | 2–5 | 30% | — | — | #24 | |
 Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 3.4 median 3 | no line | 1–6 | 28% | — | — | #47 | |
 Colorado State | Pac-12 | 3.1 median 3 | no line | 1–5 | 28% | 0.1% | 0.2% | #66 | |
 Stanford | ACC | 3.1 median 3 | no line | 1–5 | 26% | — | — | #28 | |
 Sam Houston | Conference USA | 3.0 median 3 | no line | 1–5 | 25% | — | — | #101 | |
 Ball State | Mid-American | 3.0 median 3 | no line | 0–6 | 25% | — | — | #90 | |
 Charlotte | American Athletic | 2.6 median 3 | no line | 1–4 | 22% | — | — | #80 | |
 Massachusetts | Mid-American | 2.0 median 2 | no line | 1–4 | 17% | — | — | #124 |