Schedule strength

Expected Losses

We used to publish schedule strength as a z-score, which nobody has ever read and understood. This asks a question anyone can answer: drop a team of known quality into this exact schedule — same opponents, same venues — and how many games does it lose? Three reference teams, because difficulty is not one thing: a slate an elite team runs clean can still bury an average one.

#	Elite Losses	Good Losses	Avg Losses
1	3.18	6.15	9.06
2	3.08	5.93	8.52
3	2.84	5.72	8.51
4	2.78	5.71	8.47
5	2.50	5.35	8.23
6	2.78	5.56	8.22
7	3.03	5.66	8.15
8	2.66	5.48	8.12
9	2.70	5.40	8.07
10	2.72	5.47	8.07
11	2.36	5.12	8.02
12	2.20	5.00	8.00
13	2.47	5.13	7.99
14	2.56	5.22	7.94
15	2.42	5.01	7.85
16	2.39	5.11	7.84
17	2.85	5.23	7.82
18	1.99	4.64	7.77
19	2.37	4.98	7.73
20	2.31	4.96	7.67
21	2.07	4.69	7.62
22	2.53	4.86	7.47
23	2.20	4.57	7.44
24	1.83	4.38	7.43
25	1.74	4.32	7.42
26	2.75	5.09	7.39
27	2.12	4.56	7.36
28	2.17	4.57	7.31
29	2.87	5.00	7.31
30	1.56	4.10	7.23
31	1.78	4.15	7.21
32	2.21	4.58	7.15
33	2.15	4.41	7.14
34	1.93	4.27	7.04
35	1.80	4.22	7.00
36	1.69	4.09	6.99
37	1.78	4.11	6.99
38	2.37	4.47	6.95
39	1.74	4.10	6.93
40	1.37	3.77	6.93
41	1.62	3.91	6.85
42	1.55	3.83	6.85
43	1.42	3.74	6.82
44	1.64	3.99	6.82
45	1.41	3.73	6.80
46	1.91	4.09	6.78
47	1.83	4.02	6.77
48	1.35	3.65	6.77
49	1.85	4.07	6.76
50	1.43	3.70	6.61
51	1.94	3.93	6.57
52	1.76	3.92	6.56
53	1.55	3.77	6.56
54	1.51	3.63	6.54
55	1.46	3.63	6.53
56	1.70	3.80	6.50
57	1.31	3.37	6.39
58	1.27	3.42	6.32
59	1.07	3.20	6.31
60	1.10	3.16	6.10
61	1.26	3.25	6.06
62	1.07	3.00	5.91
63	1.45	3.24	5.83
64	1.18	3.02	5.78
65	1.17	3.03	5.78
66	1.20	3.14	5.77
67	1.02	2.86	5.69
68	0.87	2.74	5.63
69	1.28	3.05	5.61
70	1.31	3.15	5.58
71	1.10	2.91	5.55
72	1.01	2.87	5.48
73	0.92	2.57	5.38
74	1.12	2.67	5.10
75	1.02	2.56	4.98
76	0.62	2.13	4.89
77	1.02	2.63	4.88
78	1.16	2.59	4.87
79	0.65	2.13	4.74
80	0.87	2.25	4.73
81	0.60	2.06	4.69
82	0.72	2.12	4.65
83	0.60	2.06	4.59
84	0.55	1.96	4.55
85	0.40	1.73	4.53
86	0.77	2.05	4.52
87	0.51	1.89	4.50
88	0.57	1.92	4.37
89	0.57	1.84	4.25
90	1.23	2.32	4.08
91	0.61	1.80	4.02
92	0.63	1.79	4.01
93	0.43	1.60	3.93
94	0.46	1.61	3.93
95	1.07	2.15	3.89
96	0.92	2.09	3.86
97	0.45	1.56	3.77
98	0.86	1.98	3.77
99	0.47	1.54	3.69
100	0.28	1.31	3.69
101	0.34	1.39	3.66
102	0.52	1.64	3.62
103	0.54	1.57	3.57
104	0.48	1.53	3.57
105	0.36	1.32	3.53
106	1.12	1.97	3.51
107	0.30	1.26	3.45
108	0.41	1.41	3.45
109	0.71	1.70	3.44
110	1.30	2.09	3.43
111	0.38	1.36	3.38
112	0.40	1.36	3.27
113	0.62	1.50	3.26
114	0.31	1.21	3.25
115	0.74	1.52	3.23
116	0.36	1.26	3.21
117	0.57	1.46	3.19
118	0.21	1.04	3.17
119	0.32	1.23	3.15
120	0.23	1.07	3.14
121	0.24	1.09	3.13
122	0.23	1.05	3.10
123	0.45	1.33	3.08
124	0.44	1.28	3.01
125	0.27	1.11	2.99
126	0.51	1.31	2.99
127	0.30	1.10	2.92
128	0.36	1.15	2.88
129	0.19	0.93	2.86
130	0.25	1.01	2.85
131	0.47	1.23	2.79
132	0.21	0.94	2.71
133	0.20	0.89	2.62
134	0.21	0.90	2.53
135	0.12	0.67	2.31
136	0.13	0.67	2.17

Strength of record (the last three columns, once a season has been played) is the same idea run backwards: actual wins minus the wins the reference team would have expected against this schedule. It is the only fair way to compare an 11-1 against a brutal slate with a 12-0 against nobody.

CfbPowerRating 2026 rating_points; reference teams at +2 SD / +1 SD / mean (SD 10.8 pts); home field 3.62; win probability from the fit's measured single-game margin spread of 13.35