Team Previews · 2026
Ohio State
2026 Dossier · Efficiency · Schedule · Churn · Market vs Model
The Stats That Define This Team
“Ranked #3 in EPA/dropback and #47 in EPA/rush out of 138 — a pass-first offense by a wide margin.”
“The defense allowed the #9 EPA/play and created the #28 havoc rate — a genuine unit on last year's tape.”
“Returns 70% of its own 2025 EPA production and imported 86 EPA from the portal — though only 29% of a 17-player class is measurable, so that import is credited conservatively.”
“Plays the 3rd-hardest schedule in the country by average opponent rating, which is what turns a 2.32 rating into 9.3 projected wins.”
- ▸11 players lost to the 2026 NFL Draft
- ▸1 incoming transfer graded above the 75th percentile
- ▸Finished 2025 at SP+ #2 (30.1)
- ▸Projects -0.8 wins vs its SP+-implied baseline
- ▸Model is lower than FPI on win total (9.3 vs 10.9)
2025 Efficiency Profile
rank of 138Tempo & Offensive Identity
2025 · rank of 136Few possessions, long ones. This offense shortens the game — fewer total drives for both teams, which drags the total down regardless of how efficient either side is.
Ranks order the field by size, not by quality — 1st in plays per game means the most snaps, which is an identity, not an advantage. Points per drive allowed is ranked 1 = stingiest. These are the same pace and per-drive efficiency inputs the totals model uses to project this team's scoring.
2026 Schedule Outlook
12 games · SOS #3
Ball State (-1.90)-43.1
@ Texas (1.49)-4.2
Kent State (-1.27)-41.8
Illinois (0.92)-30.1
@ Iowa (1.14)-17.0
Maryland (0.25)-34.0
@ Indiana (2.15)-1.1
@ USC (1.28)-7.7
Oregon (2.06)-11.7
Northwestern (0.68)-16.6
@ Nebraska (0.67)-9.7
Michigan (0.93)-20.9Spread column is the model's projected line for this team (negative = favored). Opponent rating in parentheses.
How This Rating Was Built
v6-continuous-team-hfaSecond Opinion — CFBD CORE
core-v1CORE rates this team 4.9 points better than our model does. Its situational baseline and regularized schedule network credited context our opponent adjustment did not — our projection may be starting this team too low.
Points created minus allowed per 100 qualifying plays, opponent-adjusted. FCS games, garbage time, overtime and special teams excluded — 734 offensive and 594 defensive plays qualified. Held as a cross-check only: as a prior for the next season it tested worse than SP+, so it never feeds a projection.
Win Distribution
10,000 simsBar labels are the percent of simulations finishing with that win total.
Offseason Roster Churn
70% of own EPA returningOnly 29% of this class is measurable — the EPA feed covers offensive skill players only, so defenders and linemen show no production. The rating adjustment is shrunk toward neutral rather than counting them as zero.
Staff — 2026
rank / conference rankRyan DayContinuitySame head coach as 2025 — no coaching-change adjustment to this team's rating.
9th season at Ohio State · since 2018
82-1287%
Hired Dec 4, 2018
Follows Urban Meyer (2012-2018, 83-9, 11.9 wins a year)
Level he coached at
Lateral move · Big Ten ranked #2 of 11 in 2025 conference strength; Big Ten ranked #2 of 11 in 2025 — a lateral move.
Lg = his conference's strength rank that season, SOS = his own schedule's rank in FBS (1 = hardest), T25 = ranked opponents faced. Both measured from opponents' actual results.
As favorite · straight up
105 of 105 games carried a line · since 2015
Career · 2018+
82-12
At Ohio State
82-12
ATS
57-44-456%
Coaching Accolades
Avg line at home
-26.454 g
Avg line on road
-16.634 g
Last five seasons · overall
Since 2015
Arthur SmithNew hire2025: Offensive Coordinator at Pittsburgh Steelers
First year with Ryan Day — no prior season together on record.
Last coordinated at Pittsburgh Steelers (2025) — no cached unit table for that season yet.
Jim KnowlesReturningReturning for 2026 · ran this unit in 2025
Worked under Ryan Day at Ohio State in 2025 — a carried-over pairing, not a new one.
Ohio State 2025 · ranks among 136 FBS units · conf ranks within the Big Ten
Year-Over-Year Trends This Team Sits On
7 of 38Teams coming off 10+ regular-season wins lose 2.2 wins on average the following year, and 73% decline outright. The market prices last year's record; the model prices the regression.
189 team-seasons, 2014-2025 · n=189 · avg next-season change -2.2 wins
A regular season with one loss or none is the hardest thing in the sport to run back: 69% of those teams won fewer games the next year, giving back 2.1 wins on average.
67 team-seasons, 2014-2025 · n=67 · avg next-season change -2.1 wins
Records regress, but dominance mostly doesn't: of 167 teams that outscored opponents by 14+ per game, 75% won at least 8 games again. Buy margin, not record.
167 team-seasons, 2014-2025 · n=167 · avg next-season change -1.4 wins
Defense is the stickiest input in the model: 68% of the 110 teams that allowed 18 or fewer points per game won at least 8 games the next season, even through coaching and roster turnover.
110 team-seasons, 2014-2025 · n=110 · avg next-season change -1.0 wins
Twenty-point average margins are earned, not lucky: 79% of those 68 team-seasons won 9+ games again. This is the one profile worth paying up for in August.
68 team-seasons, 2014-2025 · n=68 · avg next-season change -1.2 wins
Since 2019, 79% of 11-win teams declined the next season, giving back 2.8 wins on average. Roster churn hits the top of the sport hardest — the guys who won those games get drafted or bought.
53 team-seasons, 2019-2025 · portal era · n=53 · avg next-season change -2.8 wins
Dominance sets a floor even through roster churn: since 2019, 79% of the 145 teams that outscored opponents by 10+ per game won at least 7 games again. Their unders are the worst-priced side on the board.
145 team-seasons, 2019-2025 · portal era · n=145 · avg next-season change -1.5 wins
2026 Outlook — Model vs Market
The 10,000-run simulation puts Ohio State at 9.3 wins (10th–90th percentile: 8–11), with a 83.4% playoff rate and 30.2% to win the national title. It plays the #3 schedule, and model confidence sits at 0.43 — preseason numbers on a projected roster, not a sharp in-season line.
Pushes are excluded from the cover rate. Cover margin is points beyond the number, game-weighted — a record can hide whether those covers were comfortable or by a half point.