How Much Does A Reset Actually Move The Win Total?
Every FBS team-season since 2013 that changed its starting quarterback, split by whether the staff turned over too. A full reset means a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new QB; the contrast cohort keeps the same head coach and the same play-caller. Each new starter is classified as an experienced transfer or a first-year starter (true freshman, redshirt, or promoted backup) — all computed from CFBD records, coaching history, final AP polls, and passing stats.
Full reset: new head coach + new offensive coordinator + new starting quarterback
The full reset is the highest-variance situation in college football, and the payoff is spread, not direction: the average team lost 0.3 wins, but the standard deviation is ±3.3 — 1.1x the spread of a QB-only change. 20% of these teams gained 3 or more wins, 24% lost 3 or more, and only 56% landed in the middle. That is the bet: you are not buying an expected value — the mean is roughly zero — you are buying a distribution with fat tails on both ends, which is what a long-price win-total over or conference ticket wants and what a short-price win total cannot survive.
Outcome quality: 9% of full-reset teams won 10+ games and 10% finished ranked in the final AP poll, with 3 top-10 finishes in the sample. The best single swing was +9 wins; the worst was -8. Price matters far more than the average here, because the average is the least likely outcome.
The quarterback is the mechanism. A new staff installing a new scheme around a new arm produces both the biggest upgrades and the biggest collapses in the data, which is why full-reset teams are the cleanest source of season-long QB volume and passing-yard props: the starter inherits unlimited volume in a system built for him this offseason.
"New quarterback" is not one thing in college football, so the cohort is split by what the new starter actually was. Experienced transfers — 150+ attempts at their prior school the year before — went 25 team-seasons, +1.1 wins on average, 40% boom / 24% bust. First-year starters — true freshmen, redshirts, or promoted backups with no starter's workload anywhere in FBS — went 147 team-seasons, -0.6 wins on average, 16% boom / 25% bust.
These are the 15 FBS teams entering 2026 with a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, and a new projected starting quarterback — the live version of the cohort above. Historically 20% of them gain 3+ wins and 24% lose 3+, so treat each one as a two-sided distribution: long-price overs and conference tickets on the ones the model already likes, no short-price win totals on any of them.
| Season | Team | Head Coach | New QB | Prev W | W | Δ | Result | What Happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 |  Fresno State Mountain West | Jeff Tedford | Marcus McMaryion Transfer | 1 | 10 | +9 | 10WBOOM | Marcus McMaryion: 2,726 yds, 14 TD, 5 INT on 351 att. 1-11 to 10-4. |
| 2024 |  Indiana Big Ten | Curt Cignetti | Kurtis Rourke Transfer | 3 | 11 | +8 | 10WAP #10BOOM | Kurtis Rourke: 3,042 yds, 29 TD, 5 INT on 320 att. 3-9 to 11-2, finished AP #10. |
| 2022 |  Washington Pac-12 | Kalen DeBoer | Michael Penix Jr. Transfer | 4 | 11 | +7 | 10WAP #8BOOM | Michael Penix Jr.: 4,641 yds, 31 TD, 8 INT on 554 att. 4-8 to 11-2, finished AP #8. |
| 2022 |  USC Pac-12 | Lincoln Riley | Caleb Williams Transfer | 4 | 11 | +7 | 10WAP #12BOOM | Caleb Williams: 4,535 yds, 42 TD, 5 INT on 499 att. 4-8 to 11-3, finished AP #12. |
| 2023 |  Northwestern Big Ten | David Braun | Ben Bryant Transfer | 1 | 8 | +7 | BOOM | Ben Bryant: 1,807 yds, 13 TD, 6 INT on 277 att. 1-11 to 8-5. |
| 2016 |  UCF American Athletic | Scott Frost | McKenzie Milton 1st-yr starter | 0 | 6 | +6 | BOOM | McKenzie Milton: 1,983 yds, 10 TD, 7 INT on 336 att. 0-12 to 6-7. |
| 2019 |  Louisville ACC | Scott Satterfield | Malik Cunningham 1st-yr starter | 2 | 8 | +6 | BOOM | Malik Cunningham: 2,065 yds, 22 TD, 5 INT on 179 att. 2-10 to 8-5. |
| 2019 |  Western Kentucky Conference USA | Tyson Helton | Ty Storey Transfer | 3 | 9 | +6 | BOOM | Ty Storey: 2,567 yds, 14 TD, 7 INT on 345 att. 3-9 to 9-4. |
| 2022 |  Duke ACC | Mike Elko | Riley Leonard 1st-yr starter | 3 | 9 | +6 | BOOM | Riley Leonard: 2,967 yds, 20 TD, 6 INT on 391 att. 3-9 to 9-4. |
| 2023 |  South Florida American Athletic | Alex Golesh | Byrum Brown 1st-yr starter | 1 | 7 | +6 | BOOM | Byrum Brown: 3,292 yds, 26 TD, 11 INT on 426 att. 1-11 to 7-6. |
| 2015 |  Michigan Big Ten | Jim Harbaugh | Jake Rudock Transfer | 5 | 10 | +5 | 10WAP #12BOOM | Jake Rudock: 3,017 yds, 20 TD, 9 INT on 389 att. 5-7 to 10-3, finished AP #12. |
| 2019 |  North Carolina ACC | Mack Brown | Sam Howell 1st-yr starter | 2 | 7 | +5 | BOOM | Sam Howell: 3,641 yds, 38 TD, 7 INT on 422 att. 2-9 to 7-6. |
| 2022 |  New Mexico State FBS Independents | Jerry Kill | Diego Pavia 1st-yr starter | 2 | 7 | +5 | BOOM | Diego Pavia: 1,442 yds, 13 TD, 6 INT on 189 att. 2-10 to 7-6. |
| 2022 |  UConn FBS Independents | Jim Mora | Zion Turner 1st-yr starter | 1 | 6 | +5 | BOOM | Zion Turner: 1,408 yds, 9 TD, 10 INT on 258 att. 1-11 to 6-7. |
Sample: every FBS team-season from 2013-2024 that changed both its head coach and its primary passer (150+ attempts both years, 10+ games played). A new head coach installs his own offensive staff, so each historical case is a new play-caller regime as well — CFBD keeps no historical coordinator table. The 2026 list additionally verifies the new OC through our staff tracker. 2020 excluded. Records, coaching history, final AP polls, and passing stats from CFBD.
New quarterback, staff intact: same head coach, same offensive coordinator
Swapping only the quarterback produces an average change of -0.1 wins with far less spread (±2.9 vs ±3.3) — 19% boom, 22% bust. Continuity of scheme puts a floor under the season and a ceiling on it at the same time.
If you want variance, you need the staff change too. If you want a win-total lean you can actually hold, this is the safer cohort: 19% won 10+ games and 19% finished ranked, with results clustering tightly around the prior year's record.
"New quarterback" is not one thing in college football, so the cohort is split by what the new starter actually was. Experienced transfers — 150+ attempts at their prior school the year before — went 50 team-seasons, +0.1 wins on average, 14% boom / 14% bust. First-year starters — true freshmen, redshirts, or promoted backups with no starter's workload anywhere in FBS — went 461 team-seasons, -0.2 wins on average, 19% boom / 23% bust.
18 teams change quarterbacks in 2026 with the staff fully intact — same head coach and same offensive coordinator (teams swapping the play-caller are excluded). The base rate says results cluster near last year's record (±2.9 wins, 19% boom / 22% bust), so these are the win totals you can actually hold rather than tail-price swings.
| Season | Team | Head Coach | New QB | Prev W | W | Δ | Result | What Happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 |  TCU Big 12 | Gary Patterson | Trevone Boykin 1st-yr starter | 4 | 12 | +8 | 10WAP #3BOOM | Trevone Boykin: 3,901 yds, 33 TD, 10 INT on 492 att. 4-8 to 12-1, finished AP #3. |
| 2024 |  Arizona State Big 12 | Kenny Dillingham | Sam Leavitt 1st-yr starter | 3 | 11 | +8 | 10WAP #7BOOM | Sam Leavitt: 2,885 yds, 24 TD, 6 INT on 350 att. 3-9 to 11-3, finished AP #7. |
| 2017 |  Michigan State Big Ten | Mark Dantonio | Brian Lewerke 1st-yr starter | 3 | 10 | +7 | 10WAP #15BOOM | Brian Lewerke: 2,793 yds, 20 TD, 7 INT on 417 att. 3-9 to 10-3, finished AP #15. |
| 2018 |  Cincinnati American Athletic | Luke Fickell | Desmond Ridder 1st-yr starter | 4 | 11 | +7 | 10WAP #24BOOM | Desmond Ridder: 2,445 yds, 20 TD, 5 INT on 311 att. 4-8 to 11-2, finished AP #24. |
| 2024 |  Sam Houston Conference USA | K.C. Keeler | Hunter Watson 1st-yr starter | 3 | 10 | +7 | 10WBOOM | Hunter Watson: 1,811 yds, 12 TD, 8 INT on 281 att. 3-9 to 10-3. |
| 2013 | Michigan State Big Ten | Mark Dantonio | Connor Cook 1st-yr starter | 7 | 13 | +6 | 10WAP #3BOOM | Connor Cook: 2,755 yds, 22 TD, 6 INT on 380 att. 7-6 to 13-1, finished AP #3. |
| 2015 |  Washington State Pac-12 | Mike Leach | Luke Falk 1st-yr starter | 3 | 9 | +6 | BOOM | Luke Falk: 4,566 yds, 38 TD, 8 INT on 645 att. 3-9 to 9-4. |
| 2016 |  Wyoming Mountain West | Craig Bohl | Josh Allen 1st-yr starter | 2 | 8 | +6 | BOOM | Josh Allen: 3,203 yds, 28 TD, 15 INT on 373 att. 2-10 to 8-6. |
| 2017 |  Notre Dame FBS Independents | Brian Kelly | Brandon Wimbush 1st-yr starter | 4 | 10 | +6 | 10WAP #11BOOM | Brandon Wimbush: 1,871 yds, 16 TD, 6 INT on 274 att. 4-8 to 10-3, finished AP #11. |
| 2024 |  BYU Big 12 | Kalani Sitake | Jake Retzlaff 1st-yr starter | 5 | 11 | +6 | 10WAP #13BOOM | Jake Retzlaff: 2,896 yds, 19 TD, 12 INT on 367 att. 5-7 to 11-2, finished AP #13. |
| 2024 |  Buffalo Mid-American | Maurice Linguist | CJ Ogbonna 1st-yr starter | 3 | 9 | +6 | BOOM | CJ Ogbonna: 2,381 yds, 19 TD, 5 INT on 336 att. 3-9 to 9-4. |
| 2024 | UConn FBS Independents | Jim Mora | Joe Fagnano 1st-yr starter | 3 | 9 | +6 | BOOM | Joe Fagnano: 1,631 yds, 20 TD, 4 INT on 207 att. 3-9 to 9-4. |
| 2024 |  East Carolina American Athletic | Mike Houston | Katin Houser Transfer | 2 | 8 | +6 | BOOM | Katin Houser: 2,006 yds, 18 TD, 11 INT on 245 att. 2-10 to 8-5. |
| 2013 |  UNLV Mountain West | Bobby Hauck | Caleb Herring 1st-yr starter | 2 | 7 | +5 | BOOM | Caleb Herring: 2,718 yds, 24 TD, 5 INT on 405 att. 2-11 to 7-6. |
Same audit rules, restricted to teams that changed the primary passer while keeping the head coach. CFBD has no historical coordinator data, so head-coach continuity is the verifiable staff proxy in the historical sample; the 2026 list above additionally requires the same offensive coordinator.